How Much Oil is Left?
The discussion about peak oil begins with the question of how much oil is left underground to be recovered. Only then can we make knowledgeable statements and predictions about the future for oil as a fuel to rely on. According to a 2000 study by the U.S. Geological Survey, there was approximately 3 trillion recoverable barrels of oil underground, of which we have used slightly under 1 trillion barrels already. So if that prediction is remotely accurate, we should have no problem getting the fuel we need for generations to come, right? Well, theoretically yes, but it’s not quite that simple.
When debating peak oil, we need to not only consider the amount of oil left, but whether that oil can be found and produced to meet the world’s growing demand. If we can’t keep up with demand it doesn’t matter how many trillions of barrels there are. Naturally, the easiest to find oil is going to be found and produced first, leaving the remains in ever-remote and difficult spots to reach, such as deposits that are found in very deep water oceans. This oil is neither easy to find nor to produce. Only with recent advances in technology can we even get to this oil, and it is still not cheap to do so.
We are going to need more and more breakthroughs in technology in order to get the oil we need at a price that allows for economic growth and stability. If it costs $120 a barrel to bring this remote oil to the market, it will have severe consequences on the world economy. It really is hard to say for sure how it will play out. With the world demand for oil expected to grow steadily and steadily, we are currently wagering huge amounts on the oil industry’s ability to deliver the goods. I, however, don’t think we should bank on a fuel that is becoming ever-more difficult to find and produce.
October 18th, 2007 at 11:40 pm
I agree that we shouldn’t bank of a fuel that is becoming ever-more difficult to find and produce. And I would like to add that there are alternatives to the mainstream uses of gas.
Advances in wind and solar energy are exciting. There are electric cars that run on battery power and some can go reasonable speeds and range. The drawback is price. If you are mechanically inclined, then the cost of labor is taken out of the equation. If you’re not, then it’s out of reach today… but maybe not tomorrow.